Deterioration modelling of small-diameter water pipes under limited data availability

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Low value and high volume buried infrastructure assets in the water distribution network are typically less well understood and often sub-optimally managed in comparison to more critical or higher value assets. This is despite attracting an estimated yearly expenditure from water utilities operating in the developed world in excess of £4.42 billion per annum.

To address this problem the authors have developed a novel deterioration modelling framework founded on latest geospatial technologies and statistical analysis. The modelling framework is specifically applied to truly small diameter water distribution assets of 25–50 mm diameter. Reliability curves are developed from failure data provided by two UK Water Companies that have captured communication pipe failure records since 2001. Failure projections based on deterioration modelling curves are compared and contrasted to demonstrate the robustness of this modelling approach. A high degree of accuracy is observed for all pipe materials achieving an R2 values greater than 0.96.